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Justice O’Connor’s Deadline

When Justice Sandra Day O’Connor’s Supreme Court decision three years ago upheld the use of race in admissions, most college officials were jubilant. Absent the use of some preferences, colleges said, competitive institutions would experience a sharp drop in black and Latino enrollments.

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Amid the campus celebrations, relatively little attention was paid to a part of the O’Connor ruling that stated that the use of preferences must eventually stop — she suggested 25 years (from 2003) as an outer limit. “Enshrining a permanent justification for racial preferences would offend this fundamental equal protection principle. We see no reason to exempt race-conscious admissions programs from the requirement that all governmental use of race must have a logical end point,” she wrote.

To the extent college officials talked about that part of her decision, many expressed hope that there was enough time so that rising income levels for black and Latino families (which correlate with availability of good schools, and with standardized test scores) would bring students to parity in that time. A study released Friday — as part of a new book by the College Board — suggests that view may be a pipe dream.

Two economists at Princeton University and one at the University of Virginia collaborated on an analysis that examined the rates at which black incomes are growing and are projected to grow. Then they looked at the patterns in which increases in black income levels translate into test score increases of the sort needed for admission to top colleges. The scholars’ data show that even 25 years after the O’Connor ruling, and assuming significant gains in black income, the abandonment of affirmative action in admissions would lead to a huge drop in black enrollments at top colleges. The gains in black incomes and academic performance just aren’t fast enough to meet O’Connor’s deadline.

For their analysis, the researchers looked at four groups of competitive colleges (by degree of competitiveness) and examined the black share of the black and white enrollment for each group today, and what it would be with race-neutral admissions policies. (For a variety of reasons, the research looked only at black and white students). For each group, the share of black students would drop substantially under a race-neutral system. A particular challenge, the researchers note, is the large gap in black and white scores, on average, on the SAT. Under the most recent data released by the College Board, the white average was higher than the black average by more than 100 points on mathematics and just under 100 on the other two sections.

Then the researchers looked at models based on data on the rates at which the black-white income gap is narrowing, and did calculations based on the well established relationship between family income and SAT scores. While the researchers acknowledged that no one can be certain of the way income gaps will change in the years ahead, they used figures suggesting that in each generation, the gap in black and white average incomes will be halved. Then the researchers examined data showing a gradual closing of the gap on between black and white students on certain educational tests, and assumed that gap would continue to close.

Even with all of those assumptions, however, the models developed suggest that under race-neutral admissions policies that could be required, competitive colleges of all types would see significant decreases in black enrollments. For their research, the researchers ran projections of a “composite” based on data from various colleges.

Black Share of Black and White Enrollment at Various Types of Colleges

 

Most Selective Colleges

Highly Selective Colleges

Moderately Selective Colleges

Public Universities

Colleges used in composite

Harvard, Princeton, Yale

Penn, Swarthmore, Williams

Barnard, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Oberlin, Pomona, Wellesley

University of Virginia, Penn State University

Actual 2000 enrollment

17%

14%

9%

12%

2000 enrollment — with race-blind admissions

5%

6%

5%

5%

2025 — with race-blind admissions and narrowing of black-white income gap

7%

8%

6%

6%

2025 — with race-blind admissions and narrowing of black-white income gap and testing gap

12%

12%

9%

9%

What do these figures suggest? Sarah Turner, associate professor of education and economics at Virginia and one of the authors, said that she and her colleagues didn’t want to imply huge precision in their predictions. She called the project “an exercise.” But she said it was important for educators who care about having a diverse student body to realize that gradual shifts in black incomes are unlikely to produce the kind of impact that would be needed to do away with affirmative action and preserve the black enrollment levels that colleges want to maintain.

“Income changes alone aren’t going to close the gap, even with generous assumptions,” she said.

Turner’s co-authors are Alan B. Krueger, professor of economics and public policy at Princeton, and Jesse Rothstein, assistant professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton. The version of their work that was released Friday appeared in a new College Board collection of essays, College Access: Opportunity or Privilege?

A longer version of the study is forthcoming in American Law and Economics Review.

Scott Jaschik

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Comments

So .. it’s 100 years?

Did the authors, suggest a timeline themselves?

IMHO, the African-American community itself is asking hard questions (e.g,, the Cosby speeches).

Also, the recent book by Juan Williams, concerned about the very high birth rate by the unmarried and single — a strong indicator of future poverty because single-parent families do not have the stronger financial base of traditional, two-parent families.

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/...?z=y&EAN=9780307338235&itm=1

If you have no goals, no deadlines — you have no reason to change, IMHO. Mr. Williams points out a situation that is unsustainable, unworkable, and impossible to fund in the long-term.

L.L., at 7:10 am EDT on September 18, 2006

Is there anyone — and I mean anyone — who failed to recognize that given the “logic” of O’Connor’s ruling, its result would be to permanently institute race discrimination?

JBM, at 7:40 am EDT on September 18, 2006

Justice O’Connor

Good story, Scott. I have a few comments, the first of which is minor but leads into the others. While you state that folks in the academy did not pay much attention to Justice O’Conner’s time limit, I did speak about it with fellow presidents (Mary Ann Coleman, Larry Faulkner, and the late Kermit Hall) in an interview with Margaret Warner on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer the day of the decision. What I said follows:

“I think there’s one element we haven’t mentioned tonight, Margaret, and that is that the court said that a narrowly tailored remedy should be time limited and look forward to the day when we wouldn’t need affirmative action. I think it behooves us now to work very hard over the next decades, keeping the tool of affirmative action in the tool chest, to make sure that all students have equal access to very strong preparation for post-secondary education.”

My point was simple, and it did not of course go to the issue addressed by the authors of the new study (income growth among African-Americans and the correlation between income and characteristics such as SAT score performance that bear on admission to highly selective institutions). I would agree with the authors that income alone can’t do it. But I would urge that we take every possible measure in the schools, and in pre-school programs for that matter, to make sure that all young people have a good shot at being well prepared for college-level work and for the college and financial aid application processes.

I have two other observations. First, only the last column in the chart of projected outcomes over the next quarter of a century is legally relevant (I think), because the Supreme Court decision that O’Conner wrote applied only to public institutions, invoking the governmental interest in seeing public institutions secure the educational benefits of diversity.

Second, I think there remain some grounds for optimism in this new economic study. I would observe that the authors project that income growth among African-Americans may be expected to drive, at UVA and Penn State, an 80% increase, from 5% TO 9%, in African-American representation through the posited needs-blinds admissions in 2025 against the posited 2000 baseline. That leaves us several percentage points short of black representation under the currently permissible parameters of affirmative action.

So here are my grounds for optimism. I’m sure that most of us will readily agree with the authors’ conclusion that income growth alone can’t close the gap in African-American representation at highly selective institutions. But there remains the challenge I spoke of on the NewsHours, which would call for a concerted effort at all levels of our educational system to provide equal access to good preparation for post-secondary education and to achieve deeper understanding as well of the obstacles to academic success that members of underrepresented groups encounter (extensions, for instance, of the pioneering studies of Uri Treisman and others).

I would not be blithely optimistic. There are certainly grounds for pessimism here if one is inclined to pessimism. But I would take the findings of this economic study above all as an urgent call to all of us in higher education and in the schools to redouble our efforts in other domains and not simply to depend on projected income growth among minority populations to even the playing field.

Daniel Mark Fogel, President at University of Vermont, at 9:01 am EDT on September 18, 2006

Thoughts, anyone?

I would like to hear people’s thoughts on the effects of an open enrollment system by which a child can attend any elementary, middle, and high school (transportation not provided) or where under certain qualifications (grades or recommendation of teachers/counselors, or a lottery) a particular number of students could transfer to different middle schools/high schools. The reason for the low SAT’s are the inferior public schools some of these children must attend. The neighborhoods are poor, the tax base is low, the parents don’t get involved, the teachers deal with conflict more than teaching. Where we live, the housing market is very expensive to live in a neighborhood that qualifies your child to attend the best public schools here. For the average person (especially a single income family), it would not be possible. I’m not in favor of reverse discrimination or of lowering standards or of giving everything free to the poor and underrepresented. I think that only makes people achieve less and creates dependence. But I understand the difference in opportunities based on income or where you live. Thoughts on allowing some students to attend any public middle/high school?

S. D., at 9:00 am EDT on September 18, 2006

The problem with the open enrollment idea or any type of voucher educational system is that there is only a limited supply of seats in “high quality” schools. And just like now, even if kids had vouchers, those schools will cream the best students off the top and leave the rest to attend the schools that are left. So the social stratification (and the academic disparities that result) just continues as it is. Even if the worst schools close, you are still going to have major disparities between schools in terms of resources. the types of students who attend them and achievement. The solution to the education problem and the achievement gap is to improve public education. The reality is that there is no public or moral will to do so. Folks are content will making sure that their own kid gets a good education, not recognizing that contributing their money to education is a public good that benefits society as a whole. Until people (us) and politicians want to change the way schools are funded, teachers are distributed, and examine their own expectations for poor students and students of color, these problems will continue and affirmative action will be needed. We cannot always blame poor people and students of color for their plight-to suggest that within the political, social, economic framework that exists, the most vulnerable of our society can simply change their own condition is absurd. (some do but we need to be concerned about the masses.) The idea of private responsibility must be embedded within a system of public responsibility that provides a sound foundation and basis for their achievement. Currently, That does not exist. If you have any doubt, take a ride through any impoverished neighborhood in this country and you will wonder how any child could make it out of there as an academic success. Affirmative action provides an opportunity for those students who under certain conditions show great promise but did not “score” like others in other situations. That child needs a chance to compete at a high level in selective colleges. (Remember that test scores simply suggest “potential"-something that all students possess. All of them, even those with highest test scores, still need the proper environment to succeed.) Once he gets in, it’s all on him to succeed. But he needs the chance to help his community and the generations of people in his own family line will benefit and society will benefit.

Andy, at 10:35 am EDT on September 18, 2006

To: JBM

Newflash JBM-Racial discrimination is already permanently instituted into American society. This country was built on it and continues to perpetuate it. People think that after the Civil Rights movement, people’s attitudes changed. While people’s attitudes have shifted to some degree, we by no means have dismantled racism- it simply manifests itself in subtle ways and sometimes not-so-subtle ways (like racial profiling). So if you are concerned about racial discrimination, fight against it on behalf of people of color and fight against white privilege while you are at it.

andy, at 10:50 am EDT on September 18, 2006

“If you have any doubt, take a ride through any impoverished neighborhood in this country and you will wonder how any child could make it out of there as an academic success. Affirmative action provides an opportunity for those students who under certain conditions show great promise but did not “score” like others in other situations.”

This goes to the heart of my problem with affirmative action. If you want to help poor and disadvantaged people, help poor and disadvantaged people. affirmative action, though, takes into account one factor and one factor only — race. Sure, schools look for overcoming obstacles in a kid’s personal statement and coming from poverty, but that’s not the core of Grutter, Hopwood, Gratz, and the rest of the lawsuits over the program. The boost from that is not the same as the boost you get just because of your race.

Drive through the backwoods of Appalachia, and you’ll see neighborhoods that don’t send kids to Ivy Schools on a regular basis. If a person born there is an underrepresented minority they’ll get affirmative action. If that person is born is Greenwich, Connecticut, however, they’ll also get affirmative action. This controversy has popped up at elite schools (for instance the dispute at Harvard a couple years ago) because of the fact a large proportion of the beneficiaries of the program attending the school were not from families originally even from the U.S., much less from families that struggled in an inner-city ghetto.

The public school system needs better funding, but the fact of the matter is the amount of money tossed at it has increased over the past few decades. What’s hindered it is the efficiency with which it’s spent. That needs to improve, but that also means cutting overhead and cutting people who aren’t competent (I’m sorry, I went through a public school system and I have a ton of respect for dedicated teachers, but there are people who should not be there).

Will it lead to stratification? Maybe, but if the students aren’t studying equally, if some place a higher value on school than other, isn’t trying to avoid stratification between those students just delaying the inevitable? Good schools have a limited capacity right now, but 1.) if this continues, why worry about kids from poor schools leaving to go to them? 2.) if it was your kid in an inner-city public school, would you keep him there to avoid social stratification?

SB, at 11:45 am EDT on September 18, 2006

I’ve written an extensive comment on this article on myblog:

http://www.discriminations.us/2006/09/justice_oconnors_pipe_dream.html

John Rosenberg, Is Equality a “Pipe Dream”, at 12:55 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

Affirmative action is not simply about race in terms of the color of people’s skin. It is about the social consequences that accompany race. FYI-over 70% of all African American students attend schools in the 10 largest urban school districts in this country. So what does this mean? Well, over 70% of all African American students are likely to attend schools that are highly segregated, highly concentrated in poverty, lower tax bases, fewer resources, fewer high quality teachers (since these districts cannot afford to pay them the highest salaries)-you get my drift. So when admissions programs receive applications from black students, there is a great likelihood that they attended schools with above characteristics-hardly a level playing field for them as a group. Another tidbit of info about the Michigan cases and affirmative action in general-there is a myth that the “unqualified” student of color took the “seat” (as if she owned it) of some qualified white student in the undergrad case. The reality is that there were only 30-something or 40 black students with lower test scores than the plantiff who were admitted. There were over 1000 WHITE STUDENTS with lower test scores than the plantiff who were admitted. So who took “her seat?” Quitely likely some “unqualified” white student. Get behind the numbers and don’t believe the myths-there just aren’t enough black and latino students applying to these types of schools to make this type of a difference. And on some level, all of these students are qualified-everybody cannot get in.

Final point-my child does in fact attend a school that is at least 50% poverty level. We choose to send her there though we can afford otherwise (I’m a prof; he’s a high school principal). Our presence and the presence of the other middle class families in this school makes the school better because teachers and principals feel that they must work up to the level of expectations of mid class people. That raises the level of expectations and school experiences for the poor children that attend this school. If you have concentrated race and povery in schools, it changes the level of expectations of all those involved-parents, students, teachers, communities, politicians.

Andy, at 12:55 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

“Affirmative action is not simply about race in terms of the color of people’s skin. It is about the social consequences that accompany race. FYI-over 70% of all African American students attend schools in the 10 largest urban school districts in this country. So what does this mean? Well, over 70% of all African American students are likely to attend schools that are highly segregated, highly concentrated in poverty, lower tax bases, fewer resources, fewer high quality teachers (since these districts cannot afford to pay them the highest salaries)-you get my drift. So when admissions programs receive applications from black students, there is a great likelihood that they attended schools with above characteristics-hardly a level playing field for them as a group.”

The problem is a black kid who grows up in a wealthy family is likely to have a better SAT score/GPA/etc. than someone who grew up in a ghetto. There are a few thousand slots at elite schools open every year. There are more than a few thousand blacks who do not fit the above characteristics. If schools give a boost to someone based on their race, they aren’t going to get the above characteristics and they just largely don’t get people with above characteristics whether should or not. If you visit the campus of an Ivy League school, growing up in a ghetto just isn’t the norm for minority students.

Even at Berkeley (I don’t have the link in front of me, I’ll look for it) the school said during the California debate that the overwhelming majority of its minority students came from a middle class background or higher.

Feel free to argue these students are still disadvantaged by racism, background, etc. — I obviously disagree with the program — but if you want to help disadvantaged people, if you want to help people who grew up in a ghetto, help them; allot the same points to that kid whatever their race that a minority growing up in wealthy environment would get.

“Final point-my child does in fact attend a school that is at least 50% poverty level. We choose to send her there though we can afford otherwise (I’m a prof; he’s a high school principal).”

Touche

SB, at 2:10 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

Clarification

Justice O’Connor’s 25-year comment was not a time limit, it was an aspiration. This needs to be clarified because some would have the public believe it was a limit of some sort. Based on what we see in this article, it looks as though her comment was an optimistic aspiration or that the issues that get in the way of achieving it are so systemic and entrenched that it is a hard one to achieve. For those who like to put nose to the grindstone, it means work harder, be more creative, do whatever is necessary to make sure that students underrepresented in college make it to college at significantly higher rates than they currently do. Perhaps that effort would make success within the 20+ time frame more likely than our achievements now make it out to be.

Maricela Oliva, at 3:45 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

Affirmative Action

Actually, although in this case we are talking about the use of race in admissions, Affirmative Action is a policy that protects several groups, including veterans,women, and people of color. In fact, one of the largest groups benefitting from such policies is white women. So, I’d encourage everyone to be clear in their language whenever possible.

nb, at 3:45 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

White women reference?

Does anyone have the reference for affirmative action benefiting mainly white women? I’ve heard this stated quite a bit but I’ve never been able to find the original study. My understanding is that with the current “overrepresentation” of women at universities, the bar for women is actually higher now.

PC, at 5:35 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

No stats

I have no statistics, but the answer to PC’s question is floating around all the hot public (non-scholarly) magazines. Many schools are said to be “lowering the bar” for men to equalize gender representation at a majority of colleges.

What has become of honestly, objectively looking at a COMBINATION of class rank, high school GPA, and other factors that ALONG WITH ACT/SAT help to predict a student’s chance of success* in college?

(not college grades, just persistence and graduation)

It should be obvious that the public taxpayers no longer wish to throw public money at failed “liberal arts” experiments in pulling young people out of poverty.

What has a reasonable chance of success? Trade school? Junior college? Remedial post-high schools? Reform schools?

The chatter above does not address the central problem of students from dis-interested families, where education is seen as a waste of time and money; a distraction from immediate gratification of a job with Clownburgers.

PS — Andy, racism is the coupling of oppression with state action. What is currently happening is certainly not racism and may very well be state supported oppression of middle-class white students.

Packing any school, college, or university with students who do not appreciate or value education = oppression of the potentially serious scholars in that school. Send the bullies elsewhere to play sports and to become interested in education at their leisure and at their own expense.

Dr. F. Gump, at 7:45 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

Open Enrollment

The problem with the open enrollment idea or any type of voucher is that it encourages abandonment of schools that most need funding and support. If you want to read more thoughts on this, see http://luxuriouschoices.blogspot.com/2006/07/stuck-in-middle-again.html

kgotthardt, at 7:45 pm EDT on September 18, 2006

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