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What If Higher Ed Funds Don’t Help Economy?

Greater prosperity requires more jobs, and more jobs require more economic growth. And the best way to do that, this chain of reasoning continues, is to make investments in higher education and high-tech research. How else to cultivate the next generation of highly skilled, motivated workers for today’s ever-dynamic information economy?

That view — promoted by college presidents, governors and experts in the economics of higher education — is often cited in the quest for more funding for state university systems. But what if it’s wrong?

A new study published Wednesday by the free-market-oriented, Michigan-based Mackinac Center for Public Policy suggests just that. Its major finding, that increased state appropriations for higher education actually correlate with lower economic growth, is counter to both established understanding and conventional wisdom.

The study, also sponsored by the Center for College Affordability and Productivity, will have its critics, to be sure. The primary author, Richard Vedder, has defended his work from other economists in the past. He has made a name for himself — and earned a spot on the Spellings Commission — by criticizing colleges as too expensive and poorly run. But Vedder, a distinguished professor of economics at Ohio University, the director of the college affordability center and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, believes he has found “startling enough” results that others will want to try to look at the issue themselves — a development he’d welcome.

Looking at all 50 states over more than 20 years and using at least 1,000 data points, the study found that more state funding to higher education doesn’t necessarily lead to higher growth, and in fact correlates negatively with high growth rates. Building on previous research — which Vedder has done over the years on the topic — the study operates under the theory that students will take some time between the years they enroll and the moment they contribute fully to the economic growth of society. The study looks at three intervals — 5, 10 and 15 years — between the “input” of state funding levels in a particular year and the economic output that comes as a result of students’ education and development later on in life. And instead of finding the kind of positive correlation between increases in state funds and economic impact that colleges like to talk about, he found the opposite.

Vedder is sure enough of his results, and he acknowledges that they don’t necessarily mesh with the views of other economists studying the issue: “I don’t see the statistical relationship that a lot of people allege … that university spending promotes economic growth. I said, ’show me the evidence.’ That’s all I’m asking. Don’t give me theories. Show me the evidence.”

One scholar who has criticized Vedder’s previous work is Ronald G. Ehrenberg, director of Cornell University’s Higher Education Research Institute. While he hadn’t seen the study, Ehrenberg noted that there was the possibility that the poorest states were pumping the most funding into higher education in an attempt to boost growth in the future — a theory that would explain the negative correlation.

Vedder acknowledged the criticism but said he doesn’t believe it applies to the study. “In the latest statistical modeling, we have been very conscious of that question,” he said. “First of all, we modeled the data differently so we’re not looking at it just between states, comparing one state with another at one point in time. … We’re looking at it over a long period of time.”

He theorized that increased funding to higher education means less money in the private sector and more in an environment that doesn’t necessarily promote efficiency and productivity. “Universities, while they’re virtuous institutions … do not necessarily promote economic growth and development, because resources have to be taken from the private sector or somewhere to pay for them,” he said.

Other researchers have pointed to the fact that states with the highest growth tend to have the largest proportion of college graduates. But Vedder said his study doesn’t dispute that.

“Those are two different questions. There is very, very, very weak evidence that more spending on state universities actually leads to more college graduates,” he said — let alone higher-quality ones. So if there’s a connection between the proportion of students in a state with bachelor’s degrees and that state’s economic growth, Vedder said, it isn’t because of more funding to higher education.

So what does more spending lead to? According to the report, there’s a possibility it could result in “lower living standards for all.” It concludes: “Empirical evidence suggests that a more promising approach would be to constrain government and universities in their spending growth, using the fruits of higher tax revenues over time to lower the tax burden.”

Andy Guess

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Comments

Integrated investment

The report does made it clear that the simple factor of investing money in higher ed will not bring up the local economy. To bring up the local economy, it call for a coordinated efforts and objective analysis like what I pointed out earlier in my 2003 article: http://www.mindedwebs.com/CL/CLWk/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=34For a state to prosper, it need to evaluate its strength and taking available resource into consideration. At the same time, it need set its eye in the future and asking a lot of ifs. For example, Alaska is rich in crude oil. It maybe fine to rely on the resource for now. But a responsible government should think about the future and try to answer the question what if the resource run out? The plan should, therefore, includes strategy build up of other industries using its crude oil as the foundation.

Duncan, at 10:00 am EDT on June 26, 2007

So Glad Someone Is Saying This!!!

I’ve had the misfortune to live in a state that has seen Vedder’s conclusions ring true over the last three decades.

Higher education in the state in question has been heavily dominated by an uncooperative set of three state universities. Two of these institutions, which shall remain shameless, have engaged in decade after decade of battles over resource allocation. This has ensured that the state capitol and major metropolitan area (one of the largest in the nation) has not historically had a medical school until very recently, and has been underserved in professional education. This has ensured that the small businesses comprising the bulk of non-service employment — including state government — look elsewhere for their recruiting needs (as was pointed out in the “S-Curve” letter submitted previously on this topic). Local graduates — even those with graduate-level degrees — conversely face a hostile job market.

Over the last decade, state appropriations for the largest university have gone into the stratosphere, tuition has shot up, and the president is now at the top of the salary heap (with frequent appeals made for “rewarding performance” and retention bonuses). The community relations director is a transplant appointee who has behaved in a gratuitously insulting manner to *real* community builders. At the graduate level, the engineering college overwhelmingly supports and serves international students over local students. The level of arrogance on routine display there has reached astounding levels and the university is no longer effectively part of the community in which it operates.

The results have been questionable at best. Of the city’s top 10 employers by number of employees, six are now in grocery and/or discount retail (up from 2-3 just a decade ago). Wal-Mart has come from “off the list” to being the #1 employer. How many large cities is this true of? Meanwhile engineering jobs, and a number of companies, have fled the state, and the diversity of ecominc activity has declined.

It’s not difficult to draw a number of conclusions from the study and this particular state university instantiation. 1) Resource allocation issues between system institutions affect the efficiency of the whole system, and the economic development of the supporting state. 2) Resource misuse is endemic to such systems. This is true on both a disciplinary focus level and an administrative level. On the administrative level resource misuse seems to be growing with a movement in equating practices of public institutional management to those of the business sector (which incidentally, are falling out of favor). 3) States that seem to do well in attracting “desirable” jobs and companies in a range of industries typically are supported by a diverse aggregate of qualitatively-oriented educational institutions, both public and private — not a “mega-size fits all” monolith. 4) The “university as people magnet” model seems to have created a situation here where locals are held back in their educations, careers and businesses — probably to the detriment of the economic well-being of their communities. Again, the “S-Curve” comment above sheds some light on how this occurs, but there are other factors at play — including the frequent employment of “carpetbaggers” with community commitments that are tenuous at best in positions that directly (and often adversely) affect the employment and employability of local people.

Scrawed, at 4:50 pm EDT on July 3, 2007

Buzz

You’re right: A typo always and absolutely discredits an argument. Pretend the typos have been corrected. How do you respond to the UT PhD student’s argument?

Absent Referent, at 7:40 am EST on February 29, 2008

I’ve long doubted that higher education serves first the nation. Rather, it serves its employees first, the students second, and as a byproduct, the nation.

Given that existing relationship, one expects students to predominantly seek courses offering easy grading rather than courses offering the maximum potential to help the nation. Since student enrollment helps drive university employment, expect to see emphasis on enrollment rather than the academic fields most critical to our nation’s future.

The outcome is an outpouring of degreed graduates combined with stagnant national prosperity and deepening fiscal crisis. Our national economic future is dim and our nation’s university leaders have earned part of the blame.

Marvin McConoughey, at 1:05 pm EST on March 1, 2008

lower standard of living

Giving the overpaid professors and dept heads at state universities more money is only tossing money at the problem(s). Every person in this state other than those pompous, overpaid, dudes suffer when they get raises. The standard of living decreases for everyone else. Few, if any, of those dudes could or would do a days work if their life depended upon it. They are only self-important. Working people throughout this state and expecially civil service employees are starving while giving to the overpaid.

Stringer, at 9:10 am EDT on June 22, 2007

S Curves

If this is true perhaps contributing factors are what type of college the money goes to and where the money goes when it gets to the university. Often, money will go to “educating more workers". Sometimes the money will go to pure research. Depending on the “maturity level” of the industries in the surrounding community there could be a disconnect.

If a majority of industries in the surrounding community are startups then flooding them with hundreds of new, relatively low skilled workers won’t help very much. Startups tend to start small and need highly educated and sophisticated technicians. Of course it depends on the type of product or service being offered.

Conversly, if the majority of businesses are relatively “late” in their technology life cycle they migh want a large supply of relatively low skilled laborers.

Are the economic development dollars going to the community colleges, research universities, both or neither? Lack of planning and specifity by those folks requesting the money is probably more the culprit, then “gross inefficiency at colleges and universities".

R.F., at 9:10 am EDT on June 22, 2007

“more state funding to higher education doesn’t necessarily lead to higher growth, and in fact correlates negatively with high growth rates.

One runs the risk of confusing cause & effect. Higher tax rates reduce efficiency and generally cause lower economic growth. Higher taxes may provide for more state funding of education. The efficiency of both the capital allocation process (state budgeting and governance) the state educational processes are also key inputs.

For example which educational use of capital would create more economic growth over decades: Ward Churchill-like ventures or a undergraduate business school?

“Universities, while they’re virtuous institutions …”

Certainly, universities claim to be virtuous institutions. Perhaps that hypothesis that needs to be tested as well.

hb, at 9:15 am EDT on June 22, 2007

If the research did not correlate higher ed spending for a partcular state verses the entire economy of the U.S., then inter-state benefits from increased higher ed spending would not be accounted for.

There might be a confounding factor that once a student graduates he or she might move from that state such that the economic benefit might be transfered as well.

Let’s say that educational funding in Michigan produces graduates with technical degrees, but maybe there were no jobs locally. Funds spent in Michigan would not reflect any economic growth in Michigan.

Additionally, I’m not sure that all higher ed spending is linked to faculty salaries. It must be said that increased enrollments bring about the need for new and expanded facilities as well.

Jeff M., at 10:40 am EDT on June 22, 2007

Not buying it

This is typical political jockeying from an ideologue who wants to privatize public education while letting the “market” sort out winners from losers.

There is good reason why this report was published through the auspices of a free market think tank, rather than a peer-reviewed journal. The counterintuitive results are probably due to a short-sighted analysis that only looks at this issue from one angle.

The issue here is really about public stewardship and ensuring that states keep doors open for students. If we followed this report’s advice, then states like Michigan would use their revenues (which would normally go to college teaching, research, and student access) on more important things like lining the fat cats and corporate wallets with tax breaks come April 15. Hmmm...I’d rather “waste” my tax money on education rather than corporate profits.

Nick, at 10:40 am EDT on June 22, 2007

I am confused by the definition of “appropriations for higher education". The study references only expenditures for state universities. Does this then exclude expenditures for community and technical colleges and student financial assistance? Aren’t those also part of the higher education investment fabric? I would be more interested in this study if it only reflected true costs for expansion of educational opportunity and compare that with the state’s economic growth (or lack of it).

Thomas Babel, VP at DeVry University, at 10:45 am EDT on June 22, 2007

Thank you, Prof. Vedder

To those who indignantly claim that higher ed promotes higher incomes and outcomes — what kind of jobs do you think these “scholars’” students get after graduation?

http://images.google.com/imgres?i...vnum%3D10%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D

http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=18967

http://www.pirateballerina.com

IMHO, even Fidel wouldn’t hire their students — too undisciplined.

Edu-crats only care about the money coming in. Outcomes are up to others.

Whether welfare for “educational technology,” road builders, “bridges to nowhere,” $15,000 toilet seats, “free universal health care,” the game’s the same — soak the working-class.

Unapologetically Tired of Tedium, at 10:45 am EDT on June 22, 2007

higher education and state economy

One response I hope this study fosters is for university presidents to cite other benefits of investment in higher education apart from promises of an improved state economy. How about the worth of increasingly literate citizens, informed voters, knowledgeable consumers, informed individuals on matters of health — and a host of other results apart from economic growth?

I recall hearing historian Laurence Veysey, author of THE EMERGENCE OF THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, comment that in the period 1880 to 1910 the incorporation of standard gauge railroad tracks probably had more to do with the nation’s economic growth than did investment in new, expanded universities. That does not mean building universities is a poor choice — it just means that economic pay off (and the promise of it) is dubious.

One limit of the study I see is its reliance on educating individuals and conferring degrees. Isn’t a great deal of the university case about economic benefits often due to non-curricular activities in R&D — such as research parks, labs for advanced scholars and so on — much of which is not necessarily connected to undergraduate degree completion?

John Thelin, Professor at University of Kentucky, at 11:40 am EDT on June 22, 2007

major flaw

I agree with another respondent that this study has a major, very significant flaw. It only looks at one state (Michigan) and fails to account for inter-state migration (in and out).

Educational attainment is highly correlated with migration. It’s a fact. The more education one has, the more likely they are to migrate. There are even differences by field and discipline (engineers, for instance, more likely to move than teachers).

So, this study fails to capture (or even account for or even mention!) the fact that graduates may move to other states, failing to capture the benefits these graduates bring to the economy.

This study reminds one of global warming. For decades, hundreds of economists have shown the value of education and every now and then one or two crank, nut-case professors develop a “statistical model” that “proves” otherwise. (As evidence, Vedder is the same guy who in one of his books tried to come up with a “negative externality” for higher education — and even after acknowledging the literally hundreds of positive externalities — and all he could come up were protests and stolen newspapers).

It is not surprising that Vedder only looked at one state. Had he used national data to make up for his flawed approach, the results would have been much different. But Vedder and the group that sponsored this study knows that and is very unlikely to support a conclusion that shows positive returns to education.

PS, at 11:40 am EDT on June 22, 2007

What If Higher ED Funds Don’t Help Economy

If this is the case VEDDER and colleagues in the higher ed should shoulder the blame. They should spend more time teaching in the classroom than engaing in useless research that benefit no one. How does this particular research contribute to economic growth. If Mr. Vedder is spending more time teaching his students at Ohio University society will be better off with knowledge transfer. Interestingly, he is taking the role of an outsider when he is part of the problem he is condemning. Mr. Vadder should visit a community college to see how higher ed dollars directly translates to economic growth in the communities served.

LO, at 12:00 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

Old wine in new bottles

The Vedder study presumes that a US state economy is largely a closed system. Otherwise, there’s no logical basis for a comparison of education investment and long-term economic growth.

But so long as folks are free to move around the country, there’s an incentive to get your education in a higher-tax state (which can afford to invest/subsidize more), then make your living in a lower-tax state where you can keep more of what you earn. Since states don’t control immigration (or emigration), there’s nothing to stop this pattern.

So long as education is funded increasingly at the state level, there are only two ways the system can equalize costs and benefits. Either the low-tax states can ramp up their spending (with the obvious requirement to raise taxes), or the high-tax states can stop subsidizing education and join the race to the bottom. Since there’s no economic reason for the current low-tax states to stop their current parasitic behavior, only one of these ways is a real possibility.

Of course, at the national level, such an equilibrium would be a disaster. It’s the familiar “tragedy of the commons” in slightly new dress. The only real solution is for education investment to be made at the national level, where there is some chance of also managing in- and out-flow of human capital.

Of course, over the next couple of years, that’s hardly likely.

Rick Martin, at 2:10 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

Simple Minded Analysis

I’ve had a quick read of the paper referred to in the article.

The authors ask some interesting questions about how to measure effectiveness of education and public money spent on it that are worthy of further consideration.

They undermine their points, however, by some rather suspect use of total university revenue per FTE student. By their own admission, the revenue figures include revenue from commercial operations. Such data also likely includes revenue from research grants and contracts. Because of this, as one of the world’s leading research institutions, U of M Ann Arbor should be expected to have large revenues.

When looking at the state appropriations data it seems that there are probably appropriations to the large research universities that are not directly related to the teaching function. Thus to provide this data on a per FTE basis is also not appropriate, unless the authors were to find a way to remove the non-teaching appropriations from the calculation.

Finally, the conclusion that more university spending results to poorer economic performance is just as ridiculous as saying more university spending results in better economic performance.

The economy is an incredibly complex interaction of factors. To reduce it to a single factor is simply intellectually dishonest. The author’s initial criticism of those in the university sector who make such simple-minded statements is fair game, but to respond with this suspect paper does nothing to advance an honest debate about the role of universities in the economy and society more generally.

Robert Clift, at 2:20 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

critics and their children

Critics of higher education invariably encourage their children to go to college.

David Fahey, at 3:05 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

Do the same study on Community Colleges?

Using “higher education” as a monolithic sector does a disservice to sectors other than universities (if that was the sector studied, as implied in the article)when studies such as this one are highlighted in such broad terms. It’s no surprise at all that universities overall do not contribute to a regional or state economy directly. This is stating the obvious, as so much research does.

However, many community colleges do contribute directly to the economy and the exconomic data is there to prove it. It’s a disservice to paint all of us in higher education with the same brush. Prof. vedder: please conduct a study on community colleges’ economic impact?

Kevin Drumm, College President, at 4:20 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

I find a few problems with this article:

The authors might have proved that higher spending did not equal a growing economy, but they didn’t prove the opposite, that a declining higher ed spending led to a growing economy. That is to say, the author didn’t check the full range of variables or possiblities, at least not enough to discourage continuing to fund higher education. To check for errors or a one sided perspective of the evidence, they should have tried to find the corelations for states that spent less, not just South Dakota (which is a very bad example because so many of the degrees, especially the medical degrees going to Sioux Falls, come from out of state).

Also, the growth of ‘income’ is very different than the amount that a state pays, a distinction the study should note. The University of Virginia sees a rising budget, but the state pays less than 10%. What does this mean? It means that state appropriations do not directly correlate to the rise of university incomes. The authors seem to have hidden that fact, possibly in the attempt to correlate increased spending from the state with the increases from the universities.

As a person above discussed, it is dangerous to generalize about a state on its own outside of the larger national picture because people move so often. In Alaska, there are few top PhD programs, although there are a high percentage of PhDs working on government projects that received them from elsewhere.

Also, the percentages dicussed are so low—changes of.5% in the spending of the state—that the changes are likely caused by other outside variables. If one state declined by.5% and another increased by.5%, it is doubtful that in itself contributed to a 25% increase in real income. Or if it did, the authors should have studied to see if this percentage, or some empirical, predictive model could be found to explain changes.

I’m sure that the authors receieved PhDs at top research universities that were highly funded. Maybe they should see the hypocracy of saying that higher funding doesn’t necessarily mean better economies when they themselves got better jobs and are considered more leading scholars because of their PhDs. It’s like the not using the US News and World Report Rankings when all of the liberal arts schools that don’t want to do the rankings hire only from the top 20. There are correlations that seem to indicate that higher spending does equal a greater result, either because it naturally recruits the better talent, or because money helps people to learn better (I think both).

At the least, the article is very flawed. But sadly, the average person is generally taken by simplistic arguments, and this paper has already done its damage.

PhD Student at UT-Austin, at 4:20 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

Oops

” .. I’m sure that the authors receieved (sic) PhDs at top research universities that were highly funded. Maybe they should see the hypocracy (sic) ..”

Is someone trying to make Prof. Vedder’s case that there are too many colleges, chasing too few qualified students?

Some days, this is just too easy ..

Buzz, at 9:40 pm EDT on June 22, 2007

I think this study provides support for the thesis that corporate funding of research on higher education correlates with embarrassment for institutions connected to the researcher.

A sorry polemic that cannot conceal its pathetic methodology. Michigan indeed! There’s a representative sample for you. This man has no shame.

Greg Tropea, at 8:50 am EDT on June 24, 2007

not a holy grail

Higher ed is not a holy grail in the sense that it gives economic advantage, nor eternal youth nor any other subverted end. Its purpose is to create thinking. Might even be heretical in creating the sort of thinking that says creating advantage in one place at the expense of others is wrong.Other uses of taxes similarly dont produce economic advantage, looking after the sick etc but a humane society does this because there is non economic value. Same for higher ed, economic value is not the only value worth considering. The article suggests there is something wrong with having a better educated populace?

ailsa, at 8:05 pm EDT on June 24, 2007

Higher Education and state economy

Let’s assume Vedder’s study is simplistic and flawed — but that it does raise interesting important questions. Are there studies or data one would invoke to demonstrate that state investment in higher education does cause the economy (state, multiple states, or national) to grow?

This should not be difficult to provide given that so many university presidents allude to it.

Thanks

John Thelin, Professor at University of Kentucky, at 7:10 am EDT on June 25, 2007

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