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July 26, 2007
The increasing tendency of high-profile scholars to bypass the traditional peer-review system could ultimately have an “unraveling” effect on the process in economics, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology writes in a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper analyzing various explanations for why economists from top-ranked departments are publishing fewer papers in many top journals.
“So far these changes are fairly small and I don’t think they’ve had a very big impact,” Glenn Ellison, a professor of economics at MIT, said in an interview Wednesday. “What I think is potentially problematic is if more top authors start withdrawing from the peer-reviewed journals, then the peer-reviewed journals become a less impressive signal of the quality of the paper.”
“What I worry about,” Ellison said, “is you get to a point where you can’t make a reputation for yourself by publishing in the peer-reviewed journals. That locks in today’s elite.”
In “Is Peer Review in Decline?,” Ellison argues that the peer-reviewed journals, traditionally relevant for their quality control and dissemination functions, have become less important for well-known economists in the Internet age. When papers can be posted on personal home pages, conference Web sites and online databases, an article written by a professor who has already established a reputation can immediately “be read by thousands.”
Professors in the top five economics departments, as ranked by the National Research Council — Harvard University, the University of Chicago, MIT, Stanford and Princeton Universities – published 86.4 papers in 13 high-profile journals in economics subfields from 1990-93, compared to 71.2 from 2000-3. That 18 percent drop happened even as many journals were “substantially” increasing the number of papers they published, Ellison writes, with the share of papers contributed by scholars in top departments dropping from 4 percent in the early 1990s to 2.7 percent in 2000-3. Meanwhile, Ellison said, scholars in the top departments seem to be writing as much as they ever were, and citations of Harvard scholars are increasing even as their number of peer-reviewed publications has declined.
“The well-known people are going to cut back on their publishing in top journals because they don’t need the peer review anymore. They can get attention to their work without it,” Ellison said. The “slowdown” in the revisions process for peer-reviewed journals also seems to be a contributing factor to the decline in peer-reviewed publications by top department members with less to gain from the effort: It typically takes about three years for a paper to be published after its submission.
Ellison did not find much evidence to support the alternative theory that the trend could be a result of high-profile scholars being “crowded out of the top journals by other researchers,” though he acknowledges that may be a factor. A 2006 study by scholars from the Universities of Chicago and Michigan, “Are Elite Universities Losing Their Competitive Edge,” found that elite universities have lost their edge when it comes to research productivity — in part because of changes brought about by the advent of the Internet.
“There’s a question of whether it’s a trend on publication or a trend on the professors. I hate to say that, but if they don’t publish and others do, maybe it says something,” said Ehud Kalai, a professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management and editor of Games and Economic Behavior, one of the 13 field journals analyzed by Ellison.
“The other thing that’s a bit puzzling in this whole theory, it seems to me, is that with this explosion of information on the Internet, peer review has become even more needed because there are so many more papers,” Kalai said, adding that the number of economics journals has exploded in recent years. “They’re just multiplying like mad. If there is a trend not to publish, why are so many starting them?”
Ellison does find that even as they’ve shifted their energies away from the 13 specialized journals examined, academics in the top departments are still publishing as much as ever in five of the most prestigious general interest economics journals: the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics and the Review of Economic Studies. But, beyond those publications, Ellison said, “it’s fairly high up that we see people pulling out.” He added that there are hundreds of academic economics journals.
Ellison’s working paper is available on his Web site or online through the National Bureau of Economic Research with a subscription or $5 payment. And no, it has not been peer reviewed.
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We have seen a great number of examples of how well peer review has failed in the past few years. Michael Bellesiles, Ward Churchill, and a large number of faculty in the so-called Duke Gang of 88 seem to have “gamed” the peer review process. It is going to need to have some reforms if the public is going to take it seriously.
However, the problem with simply discarding peer review is that the reading public loses any shred of promise that the work has been judged to be solid work by reputable members of the profession. Maybe one way around this is to recognize that signed reviews of work give some way of checking up on both the author and the members of the profession who either agree or disagree with his work. Accountability, in a word. Blind peer review seems to have become problematic, though in theory it is a good approach. Perhaps a compromise would be to keep the reviewers names closed for two years, then reveal them. Again, this may not be popular with the folks who like anonymity so they can be brutally frank about what they find wrong with a work, but it also gives accountability. the author knows if he is being reviewed by impartial people, or those who may have an ax to grind.
That latter point raises another issue — review theoretically is blind, but the editors may be sending work to people who are likely to be favorably disposed toward it, or hostile toward it, and the author has no way of knowing.
Orson Buggeigh, at 9:20 am EDT on July 26, 2007
Neither the article nor the first two comments refers to one obvious solution (insofar as it is desirable to maintain peer review, and, despite the obvious pitfalls, most people probably believe it is): establish peer-reviewed online journals. I am sure some others may exist, but our experience with ours has been positive. The Dante Society of America (founded 1881) has its journal, *Dante Studies*, published annually. In 1996 it began publishing the *Electronic Bulletin of the Dante Society of America*. All contributions (we limit ourselves to notes, 1500 words or less) are considered by our five-member editorial board. It is rare that we take as long as a week to accept or reject a contribution; accepted submissions are published almost immediately. Anyone wishing to visit the site may google “EBDSA” to check us out. RH
Robert Hollander, Professor in European Lit., Emeritus at Princeton University, at 10:25 am EDT on July 26, 2007
I agree with Prof. Hollander’s comment, but there are still universities that refuse to accept on-line journal publication, even when peer-reviewed. As a stake-holder in such a journal, I urged a paper-presenter to submit to the journal, and was told that Brown University does not count on-line journals even when peer-reviewed. This is obviously second-hand so I would welcome correction if my information is incorrect.Another Modern Languages reader
LM, at 11:00 am EDT on July 26, 2007
Online peer-reviewed journals are already accepted in other areas of study. Education Policy Analysis Archives (http://epaa.asu.edu/) is highly regard in the education policy area and has published a number of important papers.
One thing that concerns me, as was implied in the article, is the increasing dependence on NBER (the National Bureau of Economic Research), a non-peer reviewed outlet, to disseminate research. I see many of the big names in my sub-field (economics of education) focusing their publications through that channel. NBER is well respected for their own work, but their extensive publication of academic “working papers” without peer review is of concern.
Yet I understand the urge; the timeframe to publication is so much shorter....
Caitlin Rue, at 11:20 am EDT on July 26, 2007
Here is a speculation from a completely different angle.
Peer review works best when the author and the reviewers agree on the general theoretical and methodological framework to be applied, so that reviews address the technical strength of the work. Where this agreement fails, reviewing often takes the form of upholding one framework against alternatives. I stopped submitting most of my work to peer review long ago because the responses I got were of the form, “I do not accept your approach to the discipline.” I still serve as a reviewer for various journals, and I try to be scrupulous in this respect, giving the approach of the author the benefit of the doubt (even when I disagree) and looking only for issues of accuracy, consistency, awareness of the relevant literature, etc. I don’t think this attitude is very common.
Now to the point: as long as doctrinal disagreements apply to a minority, it is the minority that must suffer the consequences. Increasingly, however, deep divisions over methodology and theoretical perspective have arisen among the mainstream of the economics profession. A poster child for this development is the story related by David Card concerning the reception of his work with Alan Krueger on the minimum wage.
Of course, most economists must continue to publish in prominent journals in order to gain tenure, promotion and professional esteem. The most suitable journals for this in economics are the prominent general-interest periodicals like the AER, JPE, QJE etc. It is possible, however, that economists whose professional status is secure might choose (at the margin) to forego potentially pointless peer reviews (that doctrinal disagreement issue) in some portion of their applied work.
Incidentally, one argument against the time-to-publication argument advanced in the NBER paper, is that one can publish both to a website or working paper series and to a peer reviewed journal. This is quite common, in fact.
ps: One of my most-cited articles was rejected several times (in different versions) by peer reviewers on doctrinal grounds (no issues of faulty math, interpretation or literature review were raised), but it has served its purpose very nicely on one of the working papers websites.
(As you may have guessed, I am an economics misfit.)
Peter Dorman, at 1:10 pm EDT on July 26, 2007
The problem with peer-reviewed journals is not the peer reviewing, it is with the publishing of these journals. The subscription cost structures of these journals is completely out of whack. In addition, there is no compensation whatsoever for the publication of a researcher’s intellectual property, let alone compensation for the referees. The journals cost thousands in subscription fees, pay nothing to their authors, and then wonder why established authors are seeking other venues. The article on university presses comes much closer to a solution to these problems. The digital publication of research, after peer review, with the hosting on the vast network of university data servers would solve all of this. Quality would be maintained through peer review, access would be widened because there wouled be no subscription cost, and the careers of scholars would not be held hostage to limitations on the number of articles a journal could afford to print in a given year’s editions in paper. Worthy articles could appear immediately and in great numbers once you’ve eliminated the paper, ink and mailing costs. In addition, university libraries will reap a great benefit by freeing up billions now paid in subscription fees for other purposes because the cooperative hosting by university servers would eliminate the need to buy the paper or electronic subscriptions they are now purchasing. Peer review would continue and actually have an opportunity to support scholarship rather than inhibit it.
Michael, at 3:40 pm EDT on July 26, 2007
in any field of expertise and knowledge, people have to have a set of crieria / standards to pass, fulfill and meet, whereby a fair plane is made available in academic research. peer reviews of pioneering research studies and articles is just that — an endorsement that others who are contemporary experts in the field are able to critique the works of the relatively less experienced researchers. of course, researchers and peer reviewers can also be colleagues who have the same level of expertise that either one of them would like to share with the general public and among themselves. the parity is ideal when the ultimate goal is the scientific inquiry and its objective for greater good of maximum amount of people (generalization) and not an exclusionary method of experimenting and ‘declaring’ that what one has found is the truth for everybody.
as people strive to be unbiased in their research and openly discuss their research in the professional circles, peer reviews ought to ideally be seen as opportunities for professional research writing’s growth and refine ness. instead, it is seen as a boring, tedious and at a times unfair process. research has no reason for being considered plausible and effective, unless it’s impact is evident, and once the research is done in a given field, this process of analyzing and critiquing the results and assessing the potential publicity success by way of peer reviewing, is in fact a rewarding experience of consistently improving one’s already written research work. therefore, the process of peer reviewing deserves to be seen in a positive light.
Research, at 4:35 am EDT on July 27, 2007
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Victory of emotional vox populi over critical analysis
Don’t worry, the Wiki’s will pick up the slack. I understand the unibomber has a new paper on economics. Perhaps Lyndon Larouche will review...
Blind Man, at 7:55 am EDT on July 26, 2007