Aug. 13

Poli Sci Fi

All the horse-race drama of the primary season is now but a memory. And there is plenty of time to kill before the spectacle of the party conventions. (In the fullest Guy Debord-esque sense of “spectacle,” no doubt about it.) So lately we have had a chance to contemplate the less heavily vetted aspects of political discourse – the rattle of whatever tin can may be tied to the tail of each presidential campaign. Is Barack Obama really the Antichrist? Is John McCain really Grandpa Simpson? Discuss.

Lest anyone think this is the silly season, we turn with relief to the August issue of the journal Political Theory, where a major article finally addresses an issue too long ignored by candidates and scholars alike. “If academics’ first responsibility is to tell the truth,” write two political scientists, “then the truth is that after 60 years of modern UFOs, human beings still have no idea what they are, and are not even trying to find out. That should surprise and disturb us, and cast doubt on the structure of rule that requires and sustains it.”

How true! Hold a press conference on immigration here in Washington, DC and the reporters will come. Hold one about the other aliens, and you’re lucky if a couple of smartasses turn up to ask questions about “The X Files.”

I don’t know if they read much political theory over at the National Press Club. Probably not. But if Alexander Wendt (professor of international security at Ohio State University) and Raymond Duvall (chairman of the poli sci department at the University of Minnesota) can’t get a serious hearing for their paper “Sovereignty and the UFO,” then the cause is truly hopeless, and the incessant rectal probing by our reptilian overlords will never end.

The paper came to my attention via blog postings by a couple of political scientists. One took it as an example of the kind of thing you can get away with once you have tenure. The other grappled with the argument itself and found it wanting on its own terms. (The authors of the paper have replied here.)

That argument boils down to a claim that UFO research has never achieved legitimacy because the very possibility of visitation by extraterrestrials poses too many problems for the implicit metaphysics of the nation-state.

Contemporary ideas about national sovereignty are quite thoroughly anthropocentric. That was not always the case. In the age of kings who ruled by divine right, the ultimate sovereign authority was embedded in God Himself. And if you lived in a community where shamans communicate regularly with bears or fish or the spirit of the mountain, then you would tend to think of nature itself as having, in effect, the franchise.

The modern sense of the nation-state rests on the assumption that politics is a strictly human process. Sovereignty – the ultimate authority to make decisions within a territory – is embodied in human agents.

Furthermore, a nation-state tends to develop mechanisms for keeping track of its own population – a series of institutions and bodies of knowledge devoted to monitoring the people who live within its borders, create its wealth, and obey its laws. (Or don’t, as the case may be.) The result is a grid of power and expertise sometimes designated by the rather unwieldy expression “governmentality,” coined by Michel Foucault.

Sovereignty and governmentality are related though not identical concepts. But they converge on one point that Wendt and Duvall consider a kind of blindspot: In the modern nation-state, sovereignty and governmentality are, by default, completely anthropocentric.

Even after countless thousands of UFO reports from all over the world – often by members of the military – the nearly 200 nation-states “have been notably uninterested” in the phenomenon. “One may speak of a ‘UFO taboo,’” write Wendt and Duvall, “a prohibition in the authoritative public sphere on taking UFOs seriously, or ‘thou shalt not try very hard to find out what UFOs are.’”

Their argument is, in important respects, the exact opposite of – well, “The X Files.” It is not a conspiracy theory. “We are not saying the authorities are hiding The Truth about UFOs,” write W&D. Nor are they even suggesting that The Truth would necessarily involve extraterrestrial visitation. “We are saying that [the authorities] cannot ask the question.”

This claim places their inquiry within a field of study described in this column a couple of months ago: the discipline of agnotology. (Just as epistemology considers the genesis and structure of knowledge, agnotology examines the sources and inner logic of ignorance.) Wendt and Duvall’s endnotes neglect the agnotological literature – but they have added to it, even so.

“Our puzzle,” they explain, “is not the familiar question of ufology, ‘What are UFOs?’ but, ‘Why are they dismissed by the authorities?’ Why is human ignorance not only unacknowledged, but so emphatically denied? In short, why a taboo?”

The pattern of avoidance is, the answer, “akin to denial in psychoanalysis: the sovereign represses the UFO out of fear about what it would reveal about itself. There is therefore nothing for the sovereign to do but turn its gaze away from – to ignore, and hence be ignorant of – the UFO, making no decision at all.”

One knows better than to argue with a psychoanalyst, of course. Disagreement only proves that the insight was valid; otherwise, it would not generate so much anxiety. Likewise, the call for UFO research triggers the “extraordinarily resilient” forces of modern sovereignty and its metaphysics: “Those who attempt it will have difficulty funding and publishing their work,” write Wendt and Duvall, “and their reputations will suffer.”

Wendt and Duvall mention a few cases where governments have, in fact, conducted studies of UFO sightings. But clearly they were efforts to dismiss the question. The decades-long Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) project does not undermine the point that anthropocentric sovereignty cannot bear contemplating any challenge. Indeed, the authors write, “SETI advocates have been at the forefront of UFO skepticism.”

Theories are always most beautiful when they cannot be falsified. “Sovereignty and the UFO” is a thing of beauty. Anyone who is already a little tired of McCain and Obama should check out Wendt and Duvall. And keep watching the skies....

Scott McLemee writes Intellectual Affairs each week. He also blogs at Quick Study.

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Comments

The use of abusrdity to point to a truth is a legitimate academic strategy. Whether or not governments want to question UFO’s or not, is of no real concern to me as one interested in political theory. They authors do, however, raise a serious issue: to deal with planetary issues, planetary sovereignty is necessary. Planetary soveriegnty is certainly an issue nation-state governments do not wish to address because any legitimate consideration of the issue would lead to serious questions about the nature of the nation-state. Bill Jacobks.

Bill Jacobks, instructor/dept ch at Muskegon community college, at 8:25 am EDT on August 13, 2008

Klaatu barada nikto!

I am in constant communication with higher alien beings. They have important messages to convey to you. And as soon as my funding request is approved, I will share them.

JP Craig, at 8:25 am EDT on August 13, 2008

Notes From A Practical Probabilist

Allow me to connect a few dots (I hate that phrase). But first, please know – and it’s not something you get to question – every declarative sentence has associated with it a gazillion probability estimates (one for each of us). For example ...

Pr[I’ll be home for dinner] = 0.86.

Pr[1+1=2] = 0.999999999999999999999.

Pr[Fermat’s Last “Theorem” is true] = 0.9999999999237 (the proof – depending on how you look at it – is hundreds of pages long).

Pr[John McCain will be elected president in 2008] = 0.377.

You get the point.

Now, over there on page 8, IHE has an essay about “The Innumeracy of Intellectuals” in which Chad Orzel decries the fact that intellectuals are not only innumerate, they’re even inclined to brag about it.

Obviously, anyone who read that essay was reminded of John Allen Paulos’ book, “Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences” (1988). And, of course, in that book (pp. 159-61) is a wonderful little discussion of the likelihood that anyone on the face of this Earth has ever seen a little green alien (and I will grant you that there may be unaliened space ships zipping around our living quarters ... it just stands to “reason” that their reason is superior to that of George W. Bush and NASA).

Anyway, after making a few very simple calculations, Paulos concludes his little blurb with ...

“In short, though there probably is life on other planets in our galaxy, the sightings of UFOs are almost certainly just that – sightings of unidentified flying objects. Unidentified, but not unidentifiable or alien.”

So I conclude, Pr[Little green aliens have ever been here] = 0.0000000000000000000000010.

Continuing to connect the dots, Scott, I’ve now got to decide whether to spend this afternoon contemplating anything a political scientist wrote in a professional journal or interviewing Paris Hilton about the details of her energy policy. Damn, I hope Paris has another lawn chair ... and something cool to drink.

P.S. Remember Raymond Smullyan, who has those wonderful little books of logical puzzles? He once said, “I don’t believe in astrology. I’m a Gemini, and Geminis never believe in astrology.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raymond_Smullyan

And there it is ... the last of my dots.

Frizbane Manley, at 8:50 am EDT on August 13, 2008

Answers needed

I for one need an answer for what caused the sightings and corroborating radar data in Stephenville texas earlier this year. Why did we have surveillance aircraft in the air as well as fighter jets in the air at the same time? why, if it was what many propose, a test of classified craft, did it have to occur over civilian airspace and moving towards the bush ranch? Was it a test at all? How can any vehicle or object pull that many G’s of deceleration and acceleration without breaking apart, and when can I expect my car to do that? I’d like to know whether conservation of momentum is violated and no physicist can do anything to stop such madness. And I’d like to know whether the Air Force, the Pentagon and NASA often hire crazy people, or whether all the testimony recently coming from those circles confirming extraterrestrial visitation may have a simpler explanation... that the unthinkable is in fact ... true? I’d like to know how did Phil Schneider strangled himself with a rubber hose briefly after claiming that he had survived several assassination attempts. And I’d like to know, once and for all, not who killed JFK, but why.

Aurelio, at 10:55 am EDT on August 13, 2008

Another Perspective Scott ...

The work by Wendt and Duvall reminds me of the related work of another scholar, Courtney Brown, Associate Professor of Political Science at Emory University.

Quoting from

http://www.emory.edu/EMORY_REPORT...ber/ERsept.9/9_9_96first_person.html

“In his new book, ‘Cosmic Voyages: A Scientific Discovery of Extraterrestrials Visiting Earth,’ Brown claims to use powers of ‘remote viewing’ [a psychic technique originally developed for the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency through Stanford Research Institute] to visit Mars and observe the actions of aliens. He purports to have uncovered indisputable evidence that two races of extraterrestrials, Martians and Greys, left the red planet centuries ago and have taken up residence in the dark recesses of Earth.

But Brown does not stop there. His remote viewing methods, which are ‘as rigorously controlled as those used in any solid social science text,’ have revealed that Adam and Eve were architects of a genetic engineering project and that numerous Star Trek episodes were written with the assistance of aliens. In one of the book’s more remarkable chapters, ‘The Grey Mind,’ Brown claims to have ‘entered the mind’ of an extraterrestrial and investigated its psychological make-up. Brown, who directs the ‘Farsight Institute’ in Atlanta, offers seminars—at a cost of $3,000 per head—that promise to provide attendees with the psychic abilities he has mastered.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Courtney_Brown_(researcher)

http://www.courtneybrown.com/socsci/cbvita.html

In other words, Scott, I hope the media will force Obama and McCain to address the critical issues brought to our attention by Wendt and Duvall in their first debate on September 26.

Frizbane Manley, at 11:20 am EDT on August 13, 2008

Mr Frizbane Manley ,

While I have no doubt the breadth of your mathematical skills far surpass my own, I want to propose a simple equation for you to ponder. The current count of the known number of stars in the sky is estimated at 70 sextillion, or 70,000 million. Also described as “about 10 times as many stars as grains of sand on all the world’s beaches and deserts”Each of those stars is a sun with one or more possible planets orbiting them. Multiple planets for EACH ONE of those stars. Someone with your vast knowledge of statistics surely can appreciate numbers like that. Now think about how many of those stars we as humans have actually studied up close other than looking at them as a small dot of light in a telescope from our very stationary point of view on earth, exactly 0.

0 studied out of a minimum of 70,000 million possibilities. I now remind you when our grandparents lived less than a hundred years ago they were traveling by horse drawn carriage and the airplane had not even been invented. About 500 years ago it was common to believe the earth was flat. In short, we collectively believe what we are told and experience and we do the best we can with the information we have, we are no more informed today in 2008 as people were 500 years ago. With each new scientific discovery our whole preconceived idea of the world changes.

We simply do not have enough information about what may be out in space because we have never been there with the exception of our own moon. WE HAVE NEVER BEEN ANYWHERE but Earth. It is extremely presumptuous and even arrogant to assume we have any idea what may be out there given we don’t really know.

I understand that there is a fear in the academic world of being wrong because it can cause ridicule, loss of funding and generally a ruined career. I however, have no career and therefore no fear of losing anything and am not afraid to be wrong. I have witnessed seen some of these unexplained lights in the sky and I am here to say, it is in fact MORE probable that someone else is out there and even visiting Earth than it is that we are alone.

Statistically a Fact.

Believe what you will, but I caution you to adhere to any belief too strongly especially when YOU have no evidence to support your claims.

Dr Anonymous Coward, Re:Notes From A Practical Probabilist, at 2:10 pm EDT on August 13, 2008

Response To Dr. Anonymous Coward ...

In this response, I have “borrowed” liberally from John Allen Paulos ... and with emphasis on the fact that this is only one of his three arguments contradicting the existence of aliens in our midst. I can say, almost with certainty (see the probability estimate below), that whatever you saw and whenever and wherever you saw it, it almost certainly had “MADE ON EARTH” stamped all over it.

Here goes ...

It’s estimated that there are approximately 100 billion stars (10^11) in our galaxy (the Milky Way), of which, say 1/10-th support a planet. Of these, approximately 10 billion stars, perhaps 1/100-th contain a planet that lies within that very narrow “life zone” of the star ... not too close for its solvent (water or methane or whatever) to boil away ... and not too far away to be frozen solid. Now we’re down to approximately 100 million stars (10^8) right here in our galaxy that are even candidates for supporting life.

Since most of these stars are considerably smaller than old Sol (who is no great shakes himself), only about 1/10-th of them should be seriously considered reasonable candidates for supporting planets with life. Still, this leaves us with ten million (10^7) stars in our galaxy alone that are capable of supporting life ... and, of this number, perhaps 1/10-th of them have already developed life. [Looking good, huh?] Let’s assume there are indeed 10^6 – or one million – stars with planets which support life right here in the good ol’ Milky Way. Why don’t we see any evidence of that?

One reason is that the Milky Way is a big place, having a volume of about 10^14 cubic light years (and remember a light year is the distance light travels in one year, bopping along at 186,000 miles per second ... and that converts into just about 6 trillion miles). Therefore, on average, each of these million stars (with planets that support life) has 10^14 divided by 10^6 cubic light years of volume (space) all to its lonesome ... and that’s 10^8 cubic light years of volume for each star assumed to have a planet that supports life.

The cube root of 10^8 is, rounding off, very close to 500 ... meaning that the average distance between any one of the Milky Way’s life-supporting stars and its closest neighbor would be about 500 light years. And how far is 500 light years? ... hmmm, approximately ten billion times the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Sorry, but I have to say that again ... Sol’s closest neighbor that might have a planet that supports life is approximately ten billion times the distance from the Earth to the Moon away. The distance between “close life-supporting neighbors,” even if it were considerably less than the average, would seem to preclude frequent popping in for a chat ... or even to play tricks on NORAD ... or to drop by the Snazzy Pig in Roswell, New Mexico for a beer.

Now do you want to hear Paulos’ other two reasons? Maybe not.

Still, I’d encourage you to read “The Anthropic Principle: Cosmological Version” in Richard Dawkins’ “The God Delusion” ... and no, I’m not encouraging you to question your belief in God. It’s just that there are six fundamental constants in the universe that if even one were just a tiny bit off, would make life in the universe impossible. And guess what? Well everything about our dear Earth turned out just right. What I’m suggesting is that Paulos may have inflated the proportion of planets that support life – and we haven’t even factored in “intelligent” life, have we? — making that already prohibitively long distance to our nearest neighbor-with-life even longer.

To summarize, Dr. Coward, I’m not suggesting that you didn’t see what you clearly saw. That would be silly. What I’m saying is ...

Pr[Dr. Coward saw an alien spacecraft] = 0.00000000000000000210.

P.S. Allow me to correct one of your statements (in your favor) You said, “The current count of the known number of stars in the sky [the universe] is estimated at 70 sextillion, or 70,000 million.” It turns out that 70 sextillion is actually 70, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000 million, much, much larger than you suggested.

P.P.S. Of course the Milky Way is currently in the process of “swallowing up” new galaxies – not that that will change Paulos’ numbers – all the time ... so maybe in a few billion years the Milky Way will be so dense ... Nawww.

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap080420.html

Frizbane Manley, at 10:40 pm EDT on August 13, 2008

self-marginalizing phenomena

I have always wondered about this too. I developed a theory that things like UFO’s were “self-marginalizing phenomena” – as soon as you reported them, or even expressed a legitimate interest in finding out more about them, people stuck you in a different category because you “believed” something outside the mainstream. Your ability to interface with what John C. Lilly called “consensus reality” was suspect.

In my culture it was OK, for isntance, to believe a Jewish carpenter 2,000 years dead could rescue you from an eternal bath in a lake of fire after you died in this existence.

But the notion that alien life could arise on other planets, evolve to intelligence and, by comprehending and mastering the laws of physics as we humans have, find ways to travel here and exploit us for their own purposes was just too weird, too improbable, too stupid to be worthy of serious consideration by the governmental agencies sworn to protect us, as citizens, from all enemies foreign and domestic.

This institutionalized scorn is all summed up in the phrase “aluminum foil hats,” which was actually a plot gimmick dreamed up by Aldous Huxley in a 1930’s short story, “The Tissue-Culture King.”

I had begun to think of these SMP’s as having some kind of indefinable quality that made them self-marginalizing, but I had no idea what it was. Perhaps their inherent seeming absurdity?

However, Wendt and Duval’s theory is much more elegant and resorts to well-known sociopolitical theory. I therefore find it preferable.

One might well ask, where else is the self-concept of the “state” challenged in its fundamental authority? When we find ourselves dealing with other apparently sentient species on THIS planet, such as our primate cousins, the cetaceans, pachyderms and even, it now appears, some avian species.

We have a technological advantage over these species that keeps them from asserting their rights, which means we go on treating them as chattel.

If the evidence is to be believed, human abductees are treated much the same way by their alien abductors. Parity, anyone?

Malcolm J. Brenner, Reptiloid Straw Boss, Sol system at Eyes Open Media, at 10:05 am EDT on August 14, 2008

Response to Frizbane Manley

Of course, the interest in distance is based on our current understandings of a universal speed limit. Yet even as I type, physicists are tinkering around with faster-than-light data transfer.

If there are a million planets in our galaxy supporting life, there may just be a half-dozen with technologies ‘thousands of earth-years’ ahead of our own. Even assuming we have a flawed understanding of the possibilities of physical reality its not likely that we’re being visited — just not impossible.

John at FreeCollegeBlog, at 7:35 am EDT on August 15, 2008

Response To John ...

I suppose, John, we’re in agreement, inasmuch as I wrote ...

Pr[Dr. Coward saw an alien spacecraft] = 0.00000000000000000210. (see above).

But connecting more dots ...

1. Let’s assume the universe was born with the Big Bang about 13.7 billion years ago (that’s what the scientific community tells us). Just 4.5 billion years ago, there was no Earth ... indeed, there was no Sun and no Solar System. And best estimates indicate that Old Sol’s got another 5 billion years to go ... then btfsplk! ... all burned out. And if we’re still around when that happens (and we won’t be), we’ll be going with it.

2. I think there’s little doubt that, back in the day, we were one-celled organisms ... then much later we were fish ... then as evolution continued its inexorable journey, we homo sapiens arrived on the scene ... and that was about 200, 000 years ago. How much longer we last is anyone’s guess, but some of us think we’re waaay more than half-way through our journey (although we are pretty damned clever).

3. So, in addition to all of those life constraints I mentioned in an earlier post, solar systems come and go ... and planets come and go ... and life-sustaining planets come and go ... and life on those life-sustaining planets comes and goes. And remember, I have not even tried to address what might be called “intelligent” life. Indeed, of the (guestimated) 1,000,000 solar systems in the Milky Way that may support life, some may have life forms that are nothing more than enormous continents of broccoli ... or, given our experience with life here on Earth, continents of broccoli and continents of cauliflower, all inextricably locked in an intercontinental battle for planetary domination. So to squeeze this argument as much as I can, I suppose I should say, “... and intelligent life on those life-sustaining planets comes and goes.”

4. So what?” Well, all of this makes the distances between the Milky Way’s solar systems that might have planets that harbor life that might be intelligent quite astronomical (no pun intended).

5. But all of this aside, what if, somewhere in our galaxy, there is a solar system with a planet that supports life ... and what if one or more of the life forms is “intelligent ... and what if they’ve conquered the constraint of building a “space craft” that looks like a Frisbee but zips around at speeds greater than the speed of light. Why in the Hell would they be interested in us? Why would they fly all over the Milky Way, home in on our diminishing planet, look us over, and then not be inclined to communicate with us?

I’ll tell you why. Because, when it comes to being self centered, homo sapiens take the cake. Think of the vastness of the universe in which we reside. We have not only invented a God – okay, okay, several thousand gods ...

http://www.godchecker.com/pantheon/index.php?_search —

that created us (maybe using the long process of evolution from single-celled creatures to the magnificent specimens we are today), but also created the entire universe. And why did He do that? Well according to “us,” for no other reasons than that he had the time and, given our enormous importance to Him, apparently for our amusement.

No wonder those funny little green aliens are zipping over here as frequently as they can ... they want to see God’s chosen people – the object of all of the time and energy He invested – and they want to see us close up. Frankly, I just thank God those giant Frisbees are not powered by fossil fuels.

Now you’ll forgive me, but I’ve got to get back to my copy of “Political Theory.” And then after that, I’ll be re-reading something written by Stanislaw Lem.

http://www.rpi.edu/~sofkam/lem/

P.S. Oh yes, John, one of my favorite sensations while I’m traveling around at speeds faster than the speed of light is that whenever we land, I always leap out of the space craft so I can watch myself land.

Frizbane Manley, at 11:10 am EDT on August 15, 2008

Response To Frizbane Manley

Okay, Manley, I can accept your argument that “every declarative sentence has a gazillion subjective probability estimates associated with it (i.e., one for each of us).” But, given any individual, W, it follows that ...

“W is rational if and only if W’s subjective probabilities are consistent with the ‘laws’ of probability.”

In one of your posts you wrote ...

Pr[Dr. Coward saw an alien spacecraft] = 0.00000000000000000210.

In another, your wrote ...

Pr[Little green aliens have ever been here] = 0.0000000000000000000000010.

Putting six and six together, I trust you will admit you said ...

Pr[Dr. Coward saw an alien spacecraft] > Pr[An alien spacecraft has ever been here],

a logical contradiction. In particular you must admit that Dr. Coward could not have seen an alien spacecraft unless one had actually been here.

I’ll take this up with you when I get home from the office tonight.

Griselda Manley, at 12:30 pm EDT on August 16, 2008

ET

1. If ET exists, his home solar system would radiate so much waste energy that it would be visible at hundreds of light years.

2. If ET exists he would fill up the galaxy. It is just to easy to go from star to star with nukes.

3. If UFO’s exist they are probably time travelers.

Torange, at 2:40 pm EDT on September 19, 2008

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Klaatu barada nikto!

Notes From A Practical Probabilist

Answers needed

Another Perspective Scott ...

Response To Dr. Anonymous Coward ...

self-marginalizing phenomena

Response to Frizbane Manley

Response To John ...

Response To Frizbane Manley

ET

Jobs Related to Poli Sci Fi

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Tenure-Track Faculty, Political Science -American/Comparative Politics University of Minnesota, Twin Cities

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