Enrollment

Princeton grad student takes on the humanities crisis from a decidedly gendered perspective

Everyone seems to have a theory as to why humanities majors are disappearing. One doctoral student thinks the trend is due to women's widening career paths. His notion is gaining traction.

NACUBO survey reports sixth consecutive year of discount rate increases

Discount rates at private colleges continue to grow, according to annual survey, reflecting the myriad pressures that are weakening college pricing power.

Meningitis shot's impact on community college enrollment in Texas

Community college enrollments in Texas level off, and newly required meningitis vaccinations (and associated fees and hassles) might be part of the cause.

Community colleges pop up on TV, in film and in new novels

Satirical fiction is targeting community colleges, which may be sign of the sector's deepening societal relevance.

California community colleges look for new leader amid deep challenges

With California's community colleges facing challenges that many say are insurmountable, the system begins to search for a new chancellor.

Community college enrollment growth ends

Community college enrollment drops slightly, but two-year institutions remain crowded after years of record growth.

Report: Fewer High School Students Went Straight to College

The COVID-19 pandemic doesn't seem to have affected high school graduation rates. But it appears to have impacted how many of those graduates went straight to college.

New data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center show that nearly 22 percent fewer students from the Class of 2020 went to college immediately after high school this fall compared to the Class of 2019, according to a news release from the center. The overall immediate college enrollment rate fell from 35.3 percent to 27.7 percent, a drop that is 10 times greater than the decline between 2018 and 2019.

The data are preliminary and estimate immediate enrollment rates from more than 2,300 high schools reporting as of Sept. 18.

“Based on preliminary data, there is little evidence that COVID-19 impacted high school graduation,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the center, in the release. “However, the pandemic impacted high school graduates in their immediate college enrollment, and those from high poverty, low income, and urban high schools have been hit the hardest. The enrollment gaps appear to be widening because of COVID-19.”

Students who are low income or from an underrepresented minority group seem to be most impacted, the report states. Graduates of low-income high schools saw a nearly 30 percent drop in college enrollment, compared to a 17 percent drop for those at high-income high schools. High schools with larger minority populations saw a 26.4 percent drop in college enrollment, compared to 18 percent for high schools with low minority populations. Declines were also greater for urban high schools, which saw a 25 percent drop compared to a 19.8 percent drop at suburban high schools and an 18.1 percent drop at rural high schools.

Equity gaps also emerge in who is going where. Low-income high school graduates' enrollments at public four-year colleges declined by 20.5 percent, compared to a 10.7 percent decline for higher-income high schools. Higher-income high school graduates had relatively larger enrollment drops in private four-year colleges compared to public colleges.

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Community college enrollments down nationally, but not everywhere

Dig deeper into the state of community college enrollments, and you'll find some hints at what could be keeping some institutions afloat while others sink.

The pandemic’s outsize impact on vulnerable students (opinion)

We are all eager to get a good sense of the impact of the coronavirus crisis on colleges and universities and their students. It’s not hard to find articles about virus outbreaks on individual campuses, about institutions suffering enrollment declines or about looming cuts in programs and personnel. But it is too soon to have reliable data that would paint an accurate picture of the overall impact on higher education in the current academic year -- much less the likely longer-term changes.

But two sources of data have emerged recently: preliminary enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse and average tuition and fee increases for public and private nonprofit institutions from the College Board. Consistent with the broader impacts of the pandemic, this new information raises concerns about the most vulnerable students -- particularly those seeking community college credentials -- facing the biggest new problems.

With about half of colleges reporting, undergraduate enrollment appears to be down 4 percent from fall 2019, according to Clearinghouse data released this month. That doesn’t sound so dire under the circumstances, but first-time enrollment is down a startling 16 percent, including a 23 percent drop at community colleges. The largest declines are among students beginning college in their 20s or later, rather than those who would enroll immediately after high school. It is not hard to conclude that among other problems, family responsibilities such as childcare are interfering with pre-COVID plans.

The College Board reported very small average increases in tuition and fees for 2020-21, ranging from 0.9 percent for out-of-state students and 1.1 percent for in-state students at public four-year institutions to 1.9 percent at public two-year colleges and 2.1 percent at private nonprofit four-year colleges and universities.

Unfortunately, no up-to-date data on the financial aid students are receiving will be available before this time next year, so we don’t yet know much about changes in the net prices that students are actually paying. However, the increases in the grant aid institutions provide to their students account for virtually all of the increases in grant aid over the past decade.

Institutional grant aid rose from 37 percent of all grant aid in 2009-10 to 43 percent in 2014-15 and 49 percent in 2019-20. And we know that community college students don’t get much of that aid. Only 10 percent of their grant aid was from their institutions in 2015-16, compared with 31 percent for public four-year college student and 74 percent for those at private nonprofit colleges and universities. The $150 increase in the maximum Pell Grant for 2020-21 is likely the only source of new funding for many of these high-need community college students.

There is no question that many colleges and universities are experiencing severe declines in revenue as a result of the pandemic, that many students and families are suffering income losses and other hardships, and that the crisis has disrupted many of the best-laid plans. But most of these struggles are more severe versions of trends that were already visible. The Clearinghouse has reported enrollment declines every fall since 2012. This year is extreme, but not a change of direction. The College Board has reported relatively small tuition increases since 2013-14 -- although this year’s increases are even smaller.

Many states froze their public college tuition for this academic year, but price changes in other states varied widely. In Pennsylvania and New Jersey, two of the states with the highest published four-year public prices, average tuition is lower in 2020-21 than it was a year ago, even before adjusting for inflation. The average public two-year price also declined in New Jersey -- but increased in Pennsylvania. The published price at public four-year institutions remained constant in eight states, but rose by more than 4 percent in six states, including a 9.2 percent increase in New Mexico, where tuition remains significantly below the national average.

The average published price at public two-year colleges also remained constant in eight states but rose by more than 4 percent in another eight states, with the largest increase being 6.5 percent in Texas, which enrolls 12 percent of the nation’s public two-year college students.

The flagship public universities in nearly half of the states had no increase for in-state students in 2020-21, but in eight states, the price increase was 4 percent or more. Many states also froze their out-of-state prices, but eight states raised them by 4 percent or more.

At least five elite private colleges made public statements about cutting tuition prices in the face of the pandemic -- by 15 percent at Williams College and 10 percent at several other institutions. According to Market Watch, at least 11 private colleges and universities with sizable endowments froze tuition for the year. But more than 30 of the private institutions with the largest endowments raised their published prices by amounts ranging from 3 percent to 5 percent.

In other words, it is difficult to generalize about the tuition prices facing students this year, despite the encouraging average increases. And again, we don’t know how financial aid has changed. Cutting tuition, particularly at the well-resourced institutions that meet the financial need of their students, has the biggest impact on those who pay the full price without relying on financial aid. For those facing financial struggles, the charges will be out of reach without generous financial aid even with a moderate decline in sticker prices.

In other words, the moderate price increases seem like good news, but unless both the colleges and federal and state governments step up to provide more assistance to low- and moderate-income students -- including those whose financial circumstances have deteriorated significantly during the pandemic -- moderating prices won’t be enough.

The long-term problems in higher education that demand attention are not new. Declining enrollment at many institutions was putting pressure on revenues long before the pandemic; tuition goes up every year, student debt is an ongoing issue and completion rates are too low. There is a lot to worry about.

But it is easy to misread some of the signals. Despite increases in sticker prices, as the College Board report notes, the average net prices students pay after grant aid have been quite stable over the past decade. We should be focused on preventing that trend from reversing. And student debt has stabilized. Both total federal education loans and borrowing per undergraduate student have declined every year since 2010-11. The average debt with which bachelor’s degree recipients graduate has not increased much for at least a decade. Average federal loans per full-time-equivalent undergraduate student declined by 33 percent between 2009-10 and 2019-20, from $6,070 (in 2019 dollars) in 2009-10 to $5,190 in 2014-15 and $4,090 in 2019-20. At the same time, average federal loans per graduate student fell by 9 percent.

Another ongoing pattern documented in the College Board report that merits increased attention as policy proposals focus on student debt is the increase in the share of federal loans going to graduate students. Policy discussions about the possibility of forgiving outstanding student debt -- as well as the current pandemic protection policy of waiving all federal student loan payments and not charging interest on that debt -- rarely consider this reality.

Both the sharp decline in borrowing among undergraduates and the decline in undergraduate enrollment over the past decade, while graduate student enrollment has been increasing, have contributed to the increasing share of loans that go to graduate students. Moreover, the federal government does not place strict limits on the amounts graduate students can borrow, as it does for undergraduates. Graduate students borrowed 34 percent of federal student loans in 1999-2000, 36 percent in 2009-10 and 49 percent in 2019-20. Adults with graduate degrees -- who tend to have incomes far higher than most others -- can, like undergraduates, repay their federal loans through income-based programs that ensure they will have affordable monthly payments with remaining balances eventually forgiven.

Federal Education Loans, 1999-2000 to 2019-20

There is a lot to worry about with respect to the future of educational opportunities. The fact that so many elementary school children are now at home all day places a burden on parents trying to complete a college education that affects few traditional-age students. The decline in enrollment, particularly among older community college students, is a stark reminder of the importance of supporting childcare needs so parents can return to work and to school.

Moderate price increases may be good news, but not if they come at the expense of need-based financial aid. And not if they come at the expense of colleges and universities having the resources they need to provide high-quality academic experiences with the strong academic and social support systems many students require to achieve their goals. It’s not just about getting students in the door and not raising prices too much. It’s about seeing them through to college credentials that will serve them well over the course of their lives.

We will need more data to know exactly how students and institutions are faring during the pandemic and to do anything more than make educated guesses about the future. Meanwhile, we should focus on how current circumstances are affecting the most vulnerable populations. Both the CARES Act and proposals for future action pay particular attention to former college students with education debt.

The enrollment numbers, initial information about college prices and likely trends in state support for higher education make it clear that older students and community college students are particularly at risk. Added to the frequently noted problems about lack of access to appropriate technology, difficulties with online learning, the declining availability of childcare and the populations most vulnerable to COVID, the data suggest policy should focus maintaining educational opportunities for those most at risk of losing them.

Sandy Baum is a nonresident senior fellow in the Center on Education Data and Policy at the Urban Institute. She co-wrote the College Board's Trends publications through 2019.

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Pell Recipient Enrollment Down at Privates, Survey Says

Fewer Pell Grant recipients enrolled in private nonprofit colleges this fall.

The National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities surveyed 292 private nonprofit colleges on their enrollment. Over all, it's dropped about 2 percent compared to the fall of 2019. But Pell Grant recipient enrollment has dropped at four times that rate. The federal Pell Grant is awarded to low-income students.

“College and university leaders have been remarkably resilient and creative in how they’ve responded to both the serious health implications the virus has imposed on campus and the need to adapt to continue educating their students in a safe environment,” Barbara K. Mistick, president of NAICU, said in a news release. “However, the data clearly demonstrate the significant impact the pandemic is having on students and families, especially those who are low-income. Like other areas of the economy, this pandemic has hit lower-income families especially hard and higher education is no exception.”

Most of these colleges and universities are using blended virtual and in-person models to teach as the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

Enrollment didn't change, and even increased, at some 43 percent of private nonprofit colleges, but it fell at 57 percent of private nonprofits.

Other data track similarly to the latest report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Undergraduate enrollment at private nonprofit colleges is down 4 percent, compared to a 1.3 percent decline in graduate enrollment. Baccalaureate colleges are seeing the largest enrollment declines, followed by master's-granting colleges and universities and doctoral universities.

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