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There’s an old joke about a journalist interviewing a wise old economist.
Journalist: What do you think will happen with interest rates in the future?
Economist: I believe they will … [dramatic pause] … fluctuate.
The same applies to politics. Party control shifts over time. That should be particularly obvious now, with the Democrats holding such a thin majority in the Senate. Historically, the party that holds the presidency tends to lose seats in midterm elections; that means the Biden administration has less than two years to do its most meaningful work. After that, it’s likely to lose even the bare majority it has now. That’s not an iron law, but it’s a good bet.
I’m sure the administration is aware of the historical pattern of midterm elections. I’m less sure that it has thought through the implications of that pattern for policy resilience.
Policy by executive order is probably the most obvious example of nonresilience; as we’ve seen in the last week, a new president can simply repeal previous executive orders. But the need for resilience applies to legislation, too. Policies that fly in the face of deeply held cultural attitudes are hard to sustain over time; sooner or later, some populist will caricature them in ways that lead to their demise.
“Free community college,” for instance, could go either way. It’s hard to enact at the federal level, given that community colleges’ sources of operating funding vary so much from state to state. In some states, the state provides an annual appropriation. In some states, counties or local service districts do, too. (Here, for instance, the county pays more than the state.) Some states have dedicated property taxes (“millages”), the proceeds of which go to community colleges. And even then, there can be tremendous variability within one state, let alone among 50.
Done badly, it could lead to a political disaster. If packaged as financial aid for students, then it’s subject to the bureaucracy and limits of financial aid as we practice it. (Much of it may also find its way to the for-profits.) It would also inadvertently reward the stingiest states, since they’ve shifted the greatest share of costs to students through tuition. If sent as direct operating aid to colleges, it could give political cover to states and localities to reduce their support; then, when the federal government changes hands, colleges would be left defenseless. And either way, it would be subject to two objections, one partly valid and one terrible but common. The partly valid one asks why people who don’t go to college should support those who do. The terrible-but-common one takes tuition as a sort of hazing: if I had to pay it, why shouldn’t everybody? The moral bankruptcy of the latter one should be obvious, but it’s widespread.
My own suggestion is to package it as a scholarship completely separate from the financial aid system, and to apply it only to students who have already completed 30 credits with an overall GPA above 2 (or 2.5). States that have done a better job of supporting their community colleges will have more students become eligible for the free second year, so that gets around the moral hazard issue for states. Students would have to “earn” the benefit by getting through 30 credits successfully, which is no small task; politically, it’s much harder to take away something “earned.” That gets around the “no handouts!” objection, too.
Admittedly, it isn’t as progressive as making it free for everyone. But unlike that idea, this one could actually pass. And it’s sufficiently aligned with some larger cultural values that it might survive shifts of political control. It says to students, “Show us that you’re serious and we’ll help you finish.” That fits well with cultural beliefs about work and benefit. And almost by definition, it prevents freeloading; a truly dedicated freeloader wouldn’t make it to 30 credits.
Whether the Biden administration goes with this idea or some other, I hope it thinks in terms of political resilience. I’d hate to see free community college die in committee, or at the next election. We need to play the long game.
