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Thursday’s post speculated that part of what made this recession’s effects on community college enrollments different from all of the previous ones was the sudden need for childcare. With the K-12 schools closed, many working parents -- most often mothers -- had to retreat from outside commitments to watch the kids. It further offered a theory that part of why community colleges have taken the biggest enrollment hit, despite being the most affordable option, was that the new childcare tasks fell disproportionately on women. Community college student populations tilt more female, and older, than do other sectors of higher ed.
It was a reasonably elegant theory, if I do say so myself. But it was partly refuted.
The part that survives, I think, is the difference between this recession and previous recessions. Typically, our enrollments are countercyclical to the economy. But this time, when the economy tanked, enrollments dropped. The numbers on that are solid. Moreover, the largest enrollment drops were among students over age 25, who are likelier to be parents. So far, so good.
Where the theory fell flat, though, is in comparing the drop in men’s enrollments to the drop in women’s enrollments. (In my defense, I didn’t know these data were available at the time. Hat tip to Kevin Stange for directing me to the report.) While both groups’ enrollments dropped, the drop was considerably larger for men. To the extent that the new childcare burden falls more on women, it’s hard to draw a causal connection there.
Hmm.
Some generous spirits offered explanations on Twitter. It may be that when colleges shifted to virtual instruction, mothers who could find the time found that relatively convenient; fathers may have doubled down on job searching or various short-term moneymaking instead. It’s possible. With interest rates as low as they are, construction is doing well, and that’s a male-dominated field. Also possible. But I have to admit that those feel a bit post-hoc. They may explain some of it, but I feel like some larger factor is missing, and I can’t quite figure out what it would be.
I reject any explanations that rely on “timeless truths,” because I’m trying to explain a shift that happened in less than a year. I don’t think human nature changed between 2019 and 2020. The causes should be more circumstantial than that.
Wise and worldly readers, I need your insight. Childcare helps explain the overall enrollment drop, I think, but it makes an awkward fit in explaining why men’s enrollment dropped faster than women’s. What’s going on here? (As always, I love to hear answers on Twitter at @deandad or via email at deandad (at) gmail (dot) com.) I’m honestly at a loss.
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The Girl was at a loss a few months ago when I tried to explain Quibi to her. She heard an ad for it and asked me what it was.
Me: It’s a service that shows short videos.
TG: You mean like YouTube?
Me: No, you can’t post videos to it. It produces its own. And you can only watch it on your phone, not on the Roku.
TG: Huh?
Me: Like Netflix, but shorter. And only on the phone.
TG: Why would I want that? Is it free, at least?
Me: No, it’s a monthly subscription.
TG: That’s stupid! Who would want that?
I need to have TG pick stocks for me.
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Finally, a tip of the cap to the pianist Keith Jarrett. Apparently ill health has made it impossible for him to play the piano anymore.
For those who don’t know, he’s an idiosyncratic but utterly brilliant pianist who has built a career moving between classical music and jazz. His Köln concert recording, a solo improvisation, is probably the best-selling extended piano improvisation ever; it’s also flat-out excellent.
I’ve been listening to his music since high school, and constantly finding new solace in it. His standards trio -- with Gary Peacock on bass and Jack DeJohnette on drums -- put out a series of astoundingly great albums through the ’80s and ’90s; you really can’t go wrong with any of them.
He passed the Grad School Test; when I was flat broke as a grad student at Rutgers, I saved what little I could and took the train into the city to catch his trio at Carnegie Hall. I remember him being prickly with the crowd -- apparently not unusual -- but amazing at the piano. His career has included extended recordings of Bach, electric piano with Miles Davis, jazz standards, extended solo pieces and even some multi-instrumental solo work. (Spirits 23 was a go-to during my DJ days. He plays all of the instruments.)
I’m sad that he won’t be able to play anymore, but grateful for the gifts he has given us. I have a soft spot for the idiosyncratic but tenacious ones who just keep going. Can’t imagine why.
