Many private college presidents are more than a little frustrated with the way journalists and politicians love to quote Clayton Christensen. The Kim B. Clark Professor of Business Administration at Harvard University, Christensen famously predicted in a 2011 book called The Innovative University that as many as half of American nonprofit private colleges would close within 10 to 15 years. Last year, Christensen said he stood by the prediction, linked to his view that online providers will provide "disruption" to traditional higher education markets. (Disruption in various industries, not just higher education, is Christensen's area of expertise.)
A flurry of private college closures in the last year (Green Mountain College, Mount Ida College and more on the verge), while not nearly at the pace necessary to make Christensen's prediction true, have led more people to point to his work.
But Mark Zupan isn't buying the thesis. He's president of Alfred University, which has an endowment of $118 million and is, in other words, tuition dependent. Alfred is located in upstate New York, known for having many colleges and much natural beauty, but not a booming population that would yield enrollment growth. Alfred, Zupan says, is "the kind of private, nonprofit university that Christensen believes most likely to be disrupted by the online revolution."
Zupan is not Panglossian about private higher education. But he has a challenge for Christensen.
In an essay Sunday in The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, Zupan wrote, "Of course, universities such as ours face challenges. Changes in demographic factors, online learning options, the popularity of various majors, state funding for public institutions and international enrollments create a dynamic marketplace. Nonetheless, we see more opportunities than threats. From this perspective, let me propose a friendly wager. If at least half of all traditional universities fail or merge by 2030, then I will give $1 million to Christensen’s institute (provided it is not disrupted before then!). If, however, his prediction fails to materialize by 2030, then Christensen will contribute $1 million toward Alfred University’s endowment."
Added Zupan, "In making his gift, Christensen will be investing in a university whose graduates have produced glasses that correct for colorblindness; developed ways to transmit voice and data by fiber-optic cable; started Meals on Wheels; contributed to devising a treatment for neonatal jaundice; created art showcased by the world’s major museums; invented body armor to protect soldiers and first responders; helped develop Gorilla glass; and transformed Marvel Comics from bankruptcy into Marvel Entertainment, which sold to Disney for $4.8 billion; saved AIG; and lead Voya Financial. Clay, my email is email@example.com should you wish to financially stand behind your forecast."
On Sunday, asked if he had heard from Christensen, Zupan said, "The fish hasn’t nibbled yet."
Inside Higher Ed reached out to Christensen and has not heard back.