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About eight in 10 first-year students remain enrolled in their college or university from fall to spring, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
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In its first-ever analysis of fall-to-spring persistence among first-year college students, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found that 84 percent of incoming students in 2023 remained at their college or university for their first two terms. But heading into their second year, only 69 percent of students stayed at the same institution, according to the center’s data.
First- to second-year retention is one of the best indicators of students’ likelihood of attaining a degree, according to previous research by the NSC. It’s also tied to lower financial burdens and improved socioeconomic mobility for students. But tracking students’ persistence to their second fall is “too long to wait for many institutions who seek earlier indicators of student success,” Doug Shapiro, executive director of the NSCRC, said in a press release. “Today’s report helps schools focus on supporting students who are at risk sooner.”
Among the entering class of 2023—approximately 2.3 million students in total—86 percent persisted in some type of higher education for their second term; 2.6 percent of those students transferred to another institution. By fall 2024, the transfer rate had grown to 8.1 percent among the fall 2023 cohort.
Persistence rates nationally (77.6 percent) are similar to those from a decade ago (76 percent in 2015) and have rebounded since declining in 2019 to 74.8 percent. For Ed Venit, managing director and education futurist at the consulting firm EAB, that signals higher ed is doing something right.
“Even a flat trend line is a victory when we’ve seen the uptick of the challenges students face to stay enrolled,” Venit said. Those challenges include financial obligations, poor mental health, loneliness and a lack of a sense of purpose.
The new data also gives institutions a peek into when students are making their decision to leave higher education, Venit said. “You see about half the attrition happening in the first term and about half the attrition happening before the next fall,” he noted. “The more data the better, in my opinion.”
Just under 14 percent of incoming students left higher education before their second term, and 22.4 percent of first-year students didn’t return for their second year, according to NSC data.
Defining Terms
The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center classifies retention as a student remaining enrolled at their starting institution from term to term. Persistence signifies a student remained enrolled in higher education in some capacity, even if not at their starting institution.
By sector, public and private four-year institutions saw higher fall-to-fall retention rates compared to the incoming cohort of 2022, but community colleges saw a small decline. Students at primarily online or multistate institutions had lower persistence (60.8 percent) and retention rates (55.6 percent) compared to the national averages (77.6 percent and 69.5 percent, respectively) and the largest gap between first spring and second fall persistence rates of any sector.
Full-time students were more likely to remain enrolled for the spring term (92 percent) and return for the following fall (84 percent) compared to part-time students, who had a 67.4 percent persistence rate for the spring term and a 53.2 percent persistence rate to the next fall. Private nonprofit four-year institutions saw the greatest disparities between full- and part-time student persistence.
Similarly, young incoming students—those under age 20 who were not dually enrolled—were more likely to persist (93.2 percent) compared to their older peers, including both those 21 to 24 (79 percent) and those 25 and older (72.6 percent).
Among racial and ethnic groups, Hispanic, Black and Native American students were least likely to re-enroll for a second year at any institution, with retention rates of 73.3 percent, 68.9 percent and 65.9 percent, respectively. And they were even less likely to remain at their starting institution.
Students majoring in engineering had the highest retention rate (86.6 percent) at their initial college or university among the fall 2023 cohort of bachelor’s degree–seeking students. Psychology students had the lowest retention rate (76.1 percent) and one of the highest transfer rates (9.6 percent), falling just behind health professions majors (10.9 percent) transferring.
Understanding Retention
Read more work on retention in higher education from Inside Higher Ed here.
