When Inside Higher Ed surveyed presidents last spring, 80 percent felt good about the financial stability and future of their institutions. One president I asked about this, who did not fill out the survey, said of her colleagues: “They’re on crack.”
Three months later, only two-thirds of chief budget officers IHE surveyed were similarly optimistic.
Are we reading the same news, looking at the same data, living on the same planet?
To us, the presidents’ views don’t reflect today’s demographic and economic realities.
Is this because:
- Leaders must be true believers and can’t afford to doubt.
- We at Inside Higher Ed are looking at the wrong things.
- You’re lying to us because you don’t want to yell “fire” and scare off your students and employees.
- You’re kidding yourselves.
- You’re too busy trying to reach Genius in Spelling Bee to fill out surveys.
Perhaps it’s natural to believe that things will get better, especially for those who began their careers during the go-go 1990s and 2000s when growth was the word in higher education. But external factors like (and here comes the list you're familiar with): the pending decline in Americans of traditional college age, inflationary-fueled rising costs, eroding public confidence in the perceived value of college, and the central role higher education is now playing in the culture wars seem to be pointing to decidedly not-so-sunny skies.
One long-time higher ed observer concerned about the survey results said, “A failure to acknowledge that the world is different, that we’re not ‘going back’ to the days when many/most colleges had enough students coming through the doors to sustain them open-endedly, may mean that leaders aren’t asking hard-enough questions internally about what their institutions need to do differently to ensure they’ll be sustainable for the long haul. And if they don’t start thinking about those things now, if they keep kicking the can down the road, many more of them will be in a world of hurt financially.”
What percentage of colleges will merge, close or otherwise disappear in the coming decade? Predictions vary from single digits to as high as a third. But most believe their own institution will be an outlier in the trend line. Are leaders and their teams really as confident as they say they are?
Is everyone but us living in Lake Wobegon, where all the children are above average, and all the colleges can grow their way out of a daunting demographic and financial environment?
If you’re a college leader and you believe there are in fact deep, systemic problems, what are you doing differently? Are you looking hard at evidence and data and your own situation and thinking realistically about a strategy that will help you beat the odds? Playing just enough defense to beat the competition? Or hanging tight until you can retire?
It's higher ed finance in 2023. Let's talk about it. For real.
